Within the next 10-30 years Quantum computers as they mature can offer huge advances in lots of good stuff like pharmaceutical drug discovery, climate modelling and machine learning to name but a few. Here at aldinifish.com we are going to look at the potential problems we may face from the huge advancements quantum computers will offer if left unchecked.
I see the main threat form future advanced quantum computers effecting our Cryptographic Systems. We rely on cryptographic systems every day to protect everything from internet traffic, banking and medical records to power grids, governments and military defence systems.
The main cryptographic systems in use are RSA (one of the most widely used public-key systems). It makes use of huge numbers usually 2048+ bits that is the factor of 2 large prime numbers. Then there is ECC (more efficient than RSA). It makes use of the complex maths surrounding elliptical curves. Then there is DH(very clever maths) that lets two parties establish a shared secret over an unsecure channel without ever sending the actual key.
Everything seems safe enough so what’s all the fuss about?
Well… As Quantum computers mature and advance within the next 10-30 years they could easily break all current public-key classical cryptographic systems mentioned above. Left unchecked this would impact the financial systems and national security of every nation on Earth.
Current cryptographic systems that we rely on would be cracked by using powerful quantum algorithms like ‘Shor’s Algorithm’.
So how does a quantum computer actually work?
Computers like your laptop or smart phone use the bits 0 or 1, a bit like a light switch that can be on or off. Quantum computers make use of the quirky counter intuitive untapped phenomena of quantum mechanics. Put simply they use qubits which can be 0, 1 or both at the same time. Its this third state that really makes things interesting. The qubits can be in multiple states at once. Using the light switch analogy its like having a dimmer switch with all the infinite shades of brightness all at once! This means a quantum computer can run through many solutions to a problem at the same time. Your laptop would take 1000’s of years to crack current ECC encryption but an advanced quantum system with millions of qubits in the future may take only seconds.
What about blockchains and cryptocurrencies that mainly use ECC encryption where wallet signatures can be easily compromised with quantum systems? All bitcoin wallets would be compromised making the currency worthless. Its also worth thinking about mining algorithms that make all these large mining centres work so hard calculating away day and night for a fragment of a coin. This process would be greatly accelerated or even instant using future quantum systems again making the currency worthless.
Even though we don’t currently have the quantum technology to decrypt existing cryptographic systems, bad actors are busy harvesting vast amounts of classified encrypted data with the intention of decrypting it later when Quantum systems are powerful enough. This points to a ticking time bomb just waiting for the tech to catch up.
Quantum computing is happening now with companies like IBM (the Condor), Intel and Google. Certain calculations that would take a classical computer 5 years to solve are happening in seconds.
An important factor in quantum computer development is the number of Qubits which currently range from 1000-5000. These numbers are accelerating very quickly.
Unless post-quantum cryptography is implemented within the next 10 – 30 years then the risks facing internet traffic, banking, governments and military systems are truly dangerous. This is still work in progress and some countries may be slower at adopting post-quantum cryptography due to its high cost putting their security at risk.
With Artificial Intelligence fast reaching a point of singularity combining with Quantum Computing this will be a game changer bringing massive benefits but more importantly pose a huge threat to mankind.
Read our other article about the future consequences of advanced artificial intelligence here.
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